Wednesday afternoon

A cold front is approaching and this one appears to be in considerably better shape than the last one.  This time, the upper and lower levels are cooperating a little better and their looks like more moisture is available.  The only negative I see is the timing.  Nighttime, especially late night, is not a good time for thunderstorms this time of year.  And, since we didn’t get nearly as much heating as expected today thanks to the clouds, any thunderstorms we get tonight should not pose much of a threat.

One thing that has changed, however, is the timing.  Recent trends now point to the best time for the showers/thunderstorms to arrive in our area to be between 10 P.M. and 4 A.M.  After that any lingering showers should fade/move away by 8-9 A.M.  Cooler air will slowly filter in tomorrow and with mostly cloudy skies we’ll probably stay in the upper 70’s.

Temperatures will stay just a little below normal through Friday, but another cold front will reinforce the cold air with a chilly day Saturday, then a quick bounce back starting Sunday.

Rainfall tonight.  Models and forecasters are still sticking with a pretty heavy rainfall tonight.  And those areas that receive a strong thunderstorm tonight could see an inch or more of rain in a few hours.  However, it is unlikely that many of us are going to see a strong storm tonight as darkness tonight should send this system into a quick decline.  A quarter-inch to a half-inch should be the general rain total with some isolated spots reaching an inch or more.

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On September 1 this year, NO tropical storms were active anywhere on Earth.  This is the first time that has happened in 70 years. (September  is, on average, the most active month for tropical storms.)   Just in case you miss the usual Sept. portraits…

Sunday afternoon:

The majority of the upper air system that brought us the rain overnight has moved eastward…but little has changed.  As mentioned a few days back, these weak cool fronts pushing into a well established ridge of hot/humid air often never make it here.  The current one was strong enough to push in last night’s showers, but it has died over Missouri today.  So, no cooler air to refresh us AND,  because of the weakening, the rain totals generally ran far lower than the models predicted.

So, the upshot is we’re still in that same air mass as last week.  With more sunshine tomorrow, Labor Day should turn out to be hot and humid – temperatures 90-92 with the heat index climbing to about 100.  With that muggy air mass, the daytime heating could very well pop up a few isolated late afternoon thunderstorms.

Back to school Tuesday should also be a continuation of the hot/humid weather with a higher chance for thunderstorms.  A small, short break from the hot air should arrive Wednesday.

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I’m a forecaster.  Of weather – not sports – but for what it means (nothing) here’s my predictions for Ul and UK this football season:  The magic numbers for UL are 3 or 4.  For UK they are 4 or 5.  For UL, 3 or 4 losses.  For UK 4 or 5 wins.  Hey what can I say, no absolutes – I’m a weather forecaster – everything is ranges and probabilities!

Wednesday Afternoon

A very weak cool front is pushing south into Kentucky this afternoon.  After spending most of the day dry, the front has started producing a few thunderstorms.  One formed over south-central Jefferson County and produced a 60 mph wind gust.  It’s now (4:15) moving south into Bullitt County and appears much weaker than it was a half hour ago.  A second storm is pushing out of Clark Co IN into Oldham with some strong gusts and heavy rain.  After these two storms, any additional storms should form south of the Ohio River and drift ESE.

The front itself will create only a small change – tomorrow, our humidity will be a little lower but temperatures will still reach about 90.  By Friday and Saturday, we should climb back to the lower 90’s with only small chances for rain.  However, rain chances do look a little higher for Sunday.  Labor Day still shapes up as hot and (mostly) dry.

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During the late 19th century, peanuts were so popular with the rowdy crowds at vaudeville shows that the unruly balcony sections became known as the “peanut gallery.”  (Mental Floss)

Tuesday afternoon

The upper level ridge building didn’t work out too well for the weekend.  But the ridge didn’t give up and is now in full control of our weather.  So, the general trend of our weather for the next week or longer will be the hot, humid weather. Pushing out several days on the NAM and GFS models, it appears that nature is going to make a couple attempts to dislodge the ridge, but, at least according to the  models, the ridge will  rebuild quickly to reinforce  the heat and humidity.  The first attempt will come late Wednesday and Wed. night as a weak cool front approaches from the northwest.  Whether or not the front even reaches the Ohio River, it will still offer a chance for showers/t-storms during that time.  The second chance will arrive over the weekend, maybe.  This will be a slow-moving upper system from the westcentral U.S. trying to work its way through the mountain of hot/humid air over the central U.S.  It is not unusual to see the upper ridge destroy these weak systems, but this far away in time, we still have to include the chance that it’ll give us some rain late in the weekend.

So, the picture looks pretty clear – plenty of heat and humidity and not much chance for rain this week.  Daytime highs should be in the low to mid 90’s most days, but with a dip to near 90 on the days when the two aforementioned weather systems approach us.  And, the 8-14 day outlook says we should expect this type of weather to continue out to 14 days and beyond.

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Nice way to cool off!?

photo: EPA/Kirsten Scholtz for ASPIntl

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The inventor of the Pringles can was buried inside one.  (Mental Floss)

Saturday afternoon

Mostly dry and warm today with one exception – a midday fading shower from Clark Co. which just barely made it across the Ohio River into Oldham Co.  Otherwise, plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures this afternoon and again tomorrow.  High tomorrow…mid to upper 80’s. Typical summer weather continues early next week.

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I was working in the yard today when something caught my eye.  It was a cobweb under my deck with a interesting patch of sunlight hitting it.  So I took a picture…

Then my mind suggested to me (I talk to my mind often, Is that okay?) to turn the photo upside down.  So I did…

A white cardinal!  Nature does some funny things.

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The first missile fired in Operation Desert Storm bore the logo of the Louisville Slugger bat on it.  The crew hand-painted the logo while aboard the ship from which it was launched – the USS Louisville.

Friday Morning

It’s like a three ring circus today – three models, three different solutions.  Trying to put it all together, here are a few things I’m pretty confident about.  1).  Our weather should remain dry through 6 P.M. Saturday (except for a small possibility for a few sprinkles overnight).  2).  Severe thunderstorms appear likely tomorrow night over northern/central Indiana moving into Ohio by Sunday morning.  Severe chance for Louisville area looks to be very small as peak storm chance for us will come from about Midnight Saturday until 8 A.M.  Sunday.  3).  One thing the models do agree upon is expected rainfall from this system.  Yesterday they placed a 1″+ swath of rain over most of IN and KY.  Today’s forecasts have dropped that by more than half.  Now the models are putting a 1-2″ path generally from Indy to Cincinnati with rapid dropoff south of that line.

So this could be a very interesting, and frustrating weekend for us forecasters as many things could go wrong.  But, forecast the weather is what I do, so here’s what I’m thinking now:

This Afternoon:  Mostly sunny…high mid 80’s (low humidity)

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy and warm…a few sprinkles possible…low…72.

Saturday:  Partly cloudy, hot and humid…high…90

Sat Night:  Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially after midnight.  Strong gusty   winds possible..low’…70

Sunday: Showers/thundershowers ending by late morning, then partly cloudy and warm…high…86.

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Pigs and humans are in a select group – we are the only two species who get sunburns.

Three may keep a secret if two of them are dead.  (unknown)

Thursday Afternoon

Yesterday’s showers danced around the area with little to show for their efforts.  One exception was a narrow area of .25″+ rain from near LaGrange eastward into western Henry County. I have my sprinkler running right now.

Meanwhile pleasant weather will continue through tomorrow although it’ll be a little warmer in the afternoon.  The weekend should get off to a pretty good start – partly cloudy, upper 80’s and more humid on Saturday.  Then, we’ll begin to feel the effects of yet another upper air trough digging south into the Great Lake and Ohio Valley regions.  We’ve seen a lot of these systems this summer and have enjoyed the cool weather they’ve brought.  But, although they look very promising for rain several days in advance, lately they have failed to deliver on that promise.  Currently, the models are painting a large stripe of 1″ plus rains over the area.  But, even now, the models are putting some “red flags” on the rain outlook.  They are locking in on Midnight Saturday night until Noon Sunday as the preferred time for the most energy to be near us.  This time of year, that’s often a death trap for rain.  But, I’m sure there will be some changes to that outlook before Saturday.

Stuff – neat photo

Found the photo below from  www.spaceweather.com  Photographer was Stine Bretteberg and photo was taken in northern Norway.

We are accustomed to the sun rising in the east and setting in the west.  But it’s not that way over all the earth.  Over polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere the sun never sets on the date of the Summer Solstice (usually June 20 or 21) and for several weeks either side of that date.  It’s commonly known as the Land of the Midnight Sun.   So, if the sun doesn’t set, what does it do?  It goes around and around in circles.  It starts in May as the sun hugging the horizon.  Each day until the solstice, the sun gets higher in the sky as it circles around the horizon.  After the solstice, it slowly winds back down.

The photo was taken around midnight with the sun sitting on the horizon while a layer of ice crystal clouds (cirrostratus, for Latin lovers) is in the sky.  As a result, several optical features all appear together.  First, the midnight sun; second, A large halo around the sun; and third, a set of sun dogs (parhelia) sitting in the halo at the horizon.  The Sun Dogs are the bright spots (often they have the colors of a rainbow faintly displayed) seen near the horizon directly east and west of the sun.

Addendum (also for my Latin speaking friends)

Talking about the sun’s behavior at high latitudes brings to mind an old story from a college textbook.  It seems an agricultural group , upon hearing about the sun’s polar activity, decided that would be the ideal place to raise sunflowers.  So they packed up some gear and headed off to the Land of the Midnight Sun and set of a greenhouse and planted their sunflower seeds.  At first, everything went well – the plants grew quickly and were tall and  e healthy.  Then, when the flowers started to grow, they did what sunflowers do – they followed the sun around and around and around until they slowly strangled themselves to death!

Tuesday Afternoon

Not a lot of time today, so if you haven’t read yesterday’s forecast discussion, I’d advise you to start there.  Also, today’s weather reminds me of how much I HAVEN’T missed this type this summer.

Models have come into pretty close agreement today and now focus our  best chance for showers/t-storms tomorrow between 10 A.M. and 4 P.M.  Yesterday I mentioned the system to our south essentially blocking any significant moisture northward.  All models are hitting hard on that idea today.  The result for us adds up to less aerial coverage, reducing any severe threat to near zero and overall reduced amounts of rain.  By tomorrow evening,  cooler, drier air return for another couple of days.

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The famous quote, “Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.” is usually attributed to Shakespeare.  But he didn’t write it.  Sir Walter Scott is the actual author.

Sunday Evening

Now that the clouds have finally thinned out, it looks like typical hazy, hot and humid summer weather through most of Wednesday with daytime highs near 90 and nighttime lows near 70 with patchy fog.  Wednesday looks like our best chance for thunderstorms for the week.  A weak cool front should pass the area Wednesday night with the possibility of thunderstorms ahead of, and along, the front.

Later in the week, cooler, drier air returns for a few days.  After Wed. it looks like our next chance for rain won’t come until late in the weekend.

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When the popular soft drink 7up was first introduced(1929), its name was Bib-Label Lithiatated Lemon-Lime Soda.  The modern name comes from the 7 ounce bottles it came in plus the way the carbonation bubbled UP in the bottle.

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I’m using a square bathtub now so I can’t get a ring.                                                                       unknown